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7 Contract Risk Signals Manufacturing Firms Must Monitor Amid Tariffs

Written by Execo Marketing | April 16, 2025

The recent surge in tariffs has left US manufacturers and construction firms scrambling. With new duties of up to 25% on steel, aluminum, lumber, drywall, electronics, and other vital inputs, many companies are being squeezed between fixed-price contracts and rapidly inflating costs. It's no wonder that over 76% of manufacturers cite trade uncertainties as their top challenge as of March 2025.

What makes the situation even more challenging is the unpredictability—tariff policies seem to be continually changing, often overnight, leaving already busy procurement and supply chain teams constantly playing catch-up. Decisions made today might be obsolete tomorrow, amplifying financial and operational risks.

In such an uncertain environment, understanding exactly where contracts expose your company to risk becomes essential. This blog offers guidance on identifying and monitoring critical contract-related risk signals, helping you proactively navigate volatility and protect your margins.

1. Sudden Cost Spikes & Escalation Clauses

Tariffs create immediate financial pressure. Many mid-sized companies work under fixed-price or guaranteed maximum price (GMP) contracts, making sudden input cost hikes a severe threat to margins.

What to Monitor:

  • Price Escalation Clauses: Look for specific language allowing adjustments when import duties or taxes change.
  • Notification Requirements: Check if contracts require early notice to clients or suppliers when activating escalation clauses.

According to a recent PYMNTS survey, 65% of CFOs have already entered negotiations with suppliers due to tariff-driven price increases. Having clearly defined escalation clauses can simplify these difficult conversations.

2. Supplier Obligations & Non-Performance Risks

With global supply chains facing unprecedented disruption, suppliers struggling with tariffs can miss crucial delivery obligations. This creates costly downstream disruptions for your projects or manufacturing lines.

What to Monitor:

  • Lead Times and Penalties: Ensure you clearly understand lead-time commitments and financial penalties for late deliveries.
  • Force Majeure Clauses: Verify if tariffs or government-imposed trade restrictions qualify as force majeure events.

Legal experts emphasize reviewing these clauses promptly, as the definitions of qualifying events vary widely across contracts.

3. Alignment Between Supplier & Customer Contracts

A major hidden risk emerges when your customer contracts have fixed prices, but supplier contracts allow costs to float with tariffs. This mismatch directly leads to lost profitability.

What to Monitor:

  • Pass-through Provisions: Identify how easily increased supplier costs from tariffs can be contractually passed to your customers.
  • Consistency in Terms: Ensure supplier and customer contracts align around key issues like tariffs and cost escalation.

Many of manufacturers currently struggle with reconciling supplier cost increases against fixed customer pricing. Addressing this mismatch proactively is crucial to protecting your profitability.

4. Volume Commitments & Minimum Order Clauses

Tariffs bring complexity around compliance with customs, origin labeling, and trade regulations. Mistakes in these areas can result in significant financial penalties from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP).

What to Monitor:

  • Certificates of Origin: Regularly verify and document that supplier shipments accurately reflect their country of origin.
  • Tariff Classifications: Ensure suppliers correctly classify products to prevent costly customs violations.

CBP continually highlights the steep fines associated with incorrect tariff codes or misrepresented product origins. Procurement teams must build compliance checkpoints into their contract management practices.


5. Volume Commitments & Minimum Order Clauses

Contracts often stipulate minimum purchase volumes or penalties for failure to meet obligations. When tariffs necessitate sudden sourcing changes, these clauses can trigger unexpected penalties.

What to Monitor:

  • Minimum Purchase Obligations: Check how strictly volume commitments are enforced and identify penalty clauses.
  • Flexibility Clauses: Look for language allowing sourcing adjustments without financial penalties.

Many manufacturers remain locked into inflexible supplier agreements, which can limit agility during tariff-driven supply chain shifts.

6. Financial & Operational Impact Signals

Sometimes contractual risks manifest subtly in financial data before they're clearly seen in operational disruptions. Keeping an eye on certain operational indicators can highlight hidden contract problems.

What to Monitor:

  • Margin Erosion: Regularly analyze margins for sudden decreases despite steady sales volumes.
  • Supplier Delivery Times: Track supplier delivery metrics for deteriorating performance trends indicating tariff-related issues.

Prolonged supplier lead times and increased inventories can be clear symptoms of tariff-driven supply chain disruptions. These early signals can indicate hidden contractual risks.

7. Internal Contract Visibility & Data Fragmentation

Effective response to tariffs requires quick, accurate insights into your contracts. Unfortunately, many organizations suffer from fragmented, scattered contract data, limiting their responsiveness.

What to Monitor:

  • Contract Retrieval Speed: Assess how quickly your team can find and interpret critical contract terms.
  • Contract Data Centralization: Identify bottlenecks in contract storage and accessibility.

Many leaders struggle with fragmented contract insights, hampering quick decisions during tariff-induced challenges. Improving internal contract visibility is foundational for proactive risk management.

Best Practices for Contract Monitoring in a Tariff Environment

Given these risks, it’s crucial amidst an unpredictable tariff environment to set up effective monitoring workflows. For already strained procurement and finance teams, layering in technology along with the human element becomes especially essential. Here is what teams should be doing:

  • Centralize and Clarify Your Contracts: Move away from scattered documents and fragmented communications. Centralize contracts digitally, then leverage AI tools to quickly pinpoint critical escalation clauses or supplier commitments, eliminating guesswork and delays.
  • Model Your Tariff Scenarios Proactively: Rather than reacting when tariffs hit, proactively stress-test your supplier agreements and pricing strategies against potential tariff increases. AI-powered analytics can model these scenarios, giving you clarity and confidence in your decision-making.
  • Regularly Audit Tariff Impacts: Conduct regularly targeted audits focusing explicitly on tariff-related clauses, obligations, and compliance. Using AI tools, procurement teams can immediately flag contracts most at risk, ensuring resources focus where they’re most needed.

Preparing Contracts for Continued Volatility

Tariff volatility doesn't seem to be fading anytime soon. U.S. manufacturing and construction sectors must actively protect themselves through systematic, vigilant contract management. Prioritizing clear visibility into key terms, obligations, and compliance risks isn’t just administrative—it’s now strategically vital.

By proactively monitoring the signals outlined here, procurement and supply chain leaders can dramatically reduce tariff-induced damage, ensuring their contracts protect rather than punish their bottom line.

Navigating tariff-driven volatility demands clear visibility into your contract risks. Execo combines expert human oversight and AI-powered insights to instantly surface and proactively manage the hidden risks within your supplier and customer agreements. Interested in seeing exactly where your contract risks lie—and how you can protect your margins immediately? Request your no-cost assessment here.